Here were a few of my general observations from the women’s qualifications…

The world of women’s gymnastics is desperate for strong all-arounders. As much as I respect and admire Simone Biles for her continued dominance, leading by almost exactly four points over her nearest competitor (even after some wobbles on beam and a minor break on bars) is a bit ridiculous. Could she really fall FOUR times and still win? It may not quite be that straightforward but that’s approximately the level of domination we’re talking about here. Where is the competition? Obviously Aliya Mustafina is sorely missed in this competition, and Larissa Iordache – expected to be one of Simone’s closest challengers – was shockingly off her game after having a brilliant last year of competition. Viktoria Komova didn’t compete floor, though she is at least finally approaching her top form again.  I was glad to see Giulia Steingruber grab a somewhat surprising 2^nd place overall, and excited to see Olympic champion Gabby Douglas qualify in 3^rd….yet found myself scratching my head as to how the 2^nd and 3^rd place all-around gymnasts at the world championships could both end up there after having falls on beam. In fact Gabby pretty much BOMBED that beam routine – missing all three major connections, suffering two major wobbles, and completely missing her feet on her standing full. Yet she’s third best in the world? Something is wrong with this picture. I definitely miss the days when a step or small wobble meant the difference between gold, silver, bronze, or even a medal at all, and when we had at least 6-8 contenders who could realistically vie for all-around medals, and you had to watch to the very last dismount to see which gymnasts rose to the top. I suppose it will be interesting to see who ends up with silver and bronze in the all-around final, but overall the level of competition for this coveted title is seriously lacking.

The team competition appears equally anti-climatic, although things could certainly get at least a little closer in the 3-up-3-count format. Out of curiosity I re-calculated the team scores for the USA and Russian using only their top 3 and came up with:

USA: 180.012

RUS: 176.030

Still about four points, but considering most of this difference came on floor, the Russians may not be as far behind the Americans as it may first appear. In fact, using the top 3 scores, the Russians did outscore the Americans on both bars and beam. If we take out floor altogether, the totals suddenly look dramatically closer:

USA: 134.813

RUS: 134.431

A difference of just 0.382!

And that’s without Aliya Mustafina.  Clearly she would add quite a bit to this team, in particular on floor, where the Russians had only one score over 14 (Afanayseva’s 14.633). Mustafina could likely add a few tenths on both bars and beam as well. Viktoria Komova also competed a jam-packed floor routine this summer including a new double layout, but sat out this event in qualifications.  So if this team could get a healthy Mustafina, a 100% Komova on all four events, and put in another Amanar on vault (which Afanasyeva and Komova are both capable of doing), we could actually have a great battle next summer in Rio.

The good news is the fields for the event finals here in Glasgow look pretty strong. There is good representation from lots of different countries and there appears to be some great gymnastics to look forward to. It will be both sad and strange to see no Romanians in the event finals, but refreshing to see TWO Dutch gymnasts in the beam final, and several other countries outside the typical top four on all of the events. Aside from Simone being all but guaranteed medals on floor and vault, I’d say the fields are pretty wide open and unpredictable as to who will win medals. So I think in terms of suspense, the event finals will likely be the highlight of the world championships on the women’s side.

Back to the all-around, I think it’s important for the sport that we ask ourselves what has led to such a weak field and lack of competition, and what can be done about it?

I’d say first and foremost, the rules are too hard. There’s still way too much emphasis on difficulty and this leads to many of the potentially best all-around gymnasts either getting injured or choosing to specialize. It’s simply too demanding on the body to perform the difficulty being pushed by the current rules on all four events – unless you’ve got a superwoman body like Simone Biles, who has been remarkably resistant to injury. Don’t get me wrong – I do like a lot of the difficult skills and I feel that women’s floor in particular is showcasing a lot more spectacular tumbling passes than ever before, but I want to see a variety of approaches to achieving high scores. It may work for some gymnasts to throw huge tricks, but for other gymnasts, a more artistic approach is healthier and more practical. I’d like to see these gymnasts have equal opportunity to achieve big scores and be competitive.

In order to allow for more competitive all-around gymnasts and a closer overall competition in the team and all-around, I’d suggest the following changes as initial approaches:

-Reduce the severity of deductions and allow for half-tenth intervals – for example 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, etc. Execution scores actually felt way more accurate back when smaller deductions could be taken. I think today’s large one-size-fits-all deductions of 0.1, 0.3, 0.5 is part of what is creating all these boxed scores in the 8.5-9.0 range and not allowing for execution scores well into the 9’s, even when they are well deserved.

-Reduce the deduction for a fall from 1.0 to 0.7. A full point is simply too harsh, especially give the difficulty being demanded by today’s rules.

 

-Change the women’s floor landing requirements back to the way they were and allow for well controlled lunges to receive no deduction. The stiff landings with awkward hops and steps and sometimes even more awkward forced leaps has not been a good change for women’s floor, and I see no artistic or safety benefit to this rule at all. Gymnasts are being penalized way too much for landings on very difficult and tricky tumbling passes and it is causing execution scores that are way too low.

-Lighten up the handstand requirements on pirouetting skills (especially elgrip skills) on women’s bars. Gymnasts are doing ridiculously complicated combinations of elements that were unimaginable 20 years ago and are getting crucified with 0.3 and 0.5 deductions all over the place and receiving execution scores in the low 8’s for routines that look spectacular. Bars is a dynamic, fast paced event and asking gymnasts to finish every single skill perfectly in a handstand or receive large deductions is completely unreasonable. Gymnasts are being penalized more for these deductions (sometimes even on silly skills like a kip cast pirouette on the low bar) than they are gaining from doing connected release skills. It’s no wonder the scores often make no sense.

-For beam and floor, have at least two judges that are designated as the “artistry panel” who can give anywhere from 0 to 7 tenths for the artistic value or creativity of the routine. The two judges’ points would be averaged and added to the final score. This would allow a huge incentive for a gymnast to go “above and beyond” for presentation, originality, choreography, and form, and could really help boost the score of a gymnast who may not have as much difficulty but has a lot to offer artistically. The current rules allow only for deductions for lack of artistry – for example, on floor – a 0.1 or 0.3 deduction for “insufficient artistry”, a 0.1 deduction for “inability to play a role or character,” a 0.1 or 0.3 deduction for “weak relationship between music and movements…” Believe it or not, there are actually 13 different categories of possible deductions on floor under artistry, composition and choreography, and music – all with different levels of possible deductions (0.1 for some, 0.1 or 0.3 for others, 0.5 for others…). First of all, there is no way in the world all of these would ever be able to be applied consistently because that is way too complicated, and furthermore this does nothing but potentially penalize gymnasts who are very bad artistically rather than reward those are very good. Floor and beam need a “bonus system” to truly incentivize and reward gymnasts who separate themselves artistically.

So there are some of the general thoughts that went through my head as I watched the women’s qualifications. Next I’ll post some more specific thoughts on the performance of the Americans in particular.

Here is the 2015 U.S. Men’s World Championship team, which was just announced this evening after the conclusion of the P&G U.S. Championships:

Sam Mikulak

Donnell Whittenburg

Danell Leyva

Paul Ruggeri

Alex Naddour

Brandon Wynn

Alternates

Chris Brooks

Marvin Kimble

The biggest shocker for me is not the names listed on the men’s world championship team, but one of the names not listed – Jake Dalton. Dalton didn’t compete here in Indianapolis at the P&G Championships, though it initially sounded like a temporary issue with his shoulder (he mentioned in an interview here at the competition that he had a “cyst drained” and also has received some cortisone shots). What surprises me is that Dalton’s biggest contributions to this team would come on floor and vault – the two events that are the least demanding on the shoulder. He is certainly a great all-around gymnast and capable of putting up strong scores on essentially every event but pommel horse, but I would have expected his huge scores on floor and vault alone would have been enough to land him a spot on this team. He’s been a world medalist on both of these events, not to mention a 2012 Olympian and one of the most experienced gymnasts we have. Perhaps there is more to his shoulder issue than we realized, though, and we will certainly be on the lookout for more updates on this.

There’s always a positive side to team selection, though, and the omission of Dalton opened the door for Paul Ruggeri to make his first ever world championship team. An international player for the U.S. since 2009, Ruggeri has won multiple international medals on his specialties – floor, vault, and high bar – but has never actually competed in a world championship; in fact he’s been chosen as an alternate to the world team three different times. He’s been amazingly consistent over the past six years, doing some of the most difficult tumbling and trickiest high bar routines around, and has always shown great competitive ability on both the national and international stage. I was amazed at today’s competition when, after missing his laid-out Kolman (Cassina) on high bar – one of the most difficult skills being done on this event – Ruggeri dared to get up and go for it again, catching it the second time. That takes a tremendous amount of guts to actually repeat such an incredibly risky skill like that early in the routine, knowing how many other skills you would still have to complete after that. That’s the kind of competitive aggressiveness that defines him, and proving you can repeat a skill like that under pressure can really help alleviate the damage done by the fall. Although I hate to see Dalton left off this team, seeing Ruggeri finally named to his first world team the year before the Olympics is extremely cool to see.  He deserves it.

One other question mark I had after watching today’s competition was whether Chris Brooks was going to be named. I think he looks about the best I’ve seen him in years, and aside from a fall off pommel horse (his weakest event), he gave a spectacular showing. His scores on p-bars and high bar were so high I thought surely he’d have to be utilized on these two events (15.4 and 15.75 on p-bars, and 15.6 and 15.75 on high bar), and placing 3^rd all-around in this field made a huge statement about his overall shape right now. I honestly started wondering if they might actually make Danell Leyva an alternate and use Chris Brooks instead, because these two bring similar strengths to the table. Leyva fell on high bar today, and although he hit two very strong p-bar routines in this meet, I thought Chris Brooks actually looked slightly cleaner, and he outscored Leyva on both events. Leyva is an awesome gymnast, but we haven’t quite seen him put his very best gymnastics out there since the Olympics in London – at least in terms of cleanliness. I know that’s probably tough for Brooks to be named as the alternate after looking so awesome here and placing 3^rd in the all-around. Like Ruggeri, Brooks has been an alternate for the American team multiple times, including for the 2012 Olympic Games.

Sam Mikulak and Donnell Whittenburg were essentially locks for this team, so I don’t think anyone is surprised to see them on the list. And after seeing how many guys fell on pommel horse on Day 2, I felt Alex Naddour essentially solidified his spot when he put up a very strong 15.5 today (also 15.1 on Day 1). This team desperately needs a reliable 15+ score on pommel horse, and thus I’d say he earned his spot. As far as the final spot goes, the committee looked at an event where there appeared to be a bit of a hole – rings. Mikulak and Whittenburg can certainly be used here, but the other gymnasts named to the team – Leyva, Ruggeri, and Naddour – all scored in the 14’s both days at this meet. Rings tends to be a very stable and predictable event, and thus it’s a place where a specialist can rack up a lot of almost-guaranteed points for the team. So I wasn’t surprised at all to see Brandon Wynn get the call to help fill this void, considering he scored a 15.7 and 15.8 in this competition – at least a point higher than what Leyva, Ruggeri, and Naddour put up. This is exactly what has landed Brandon Wynn world team berths in the past, and in this particular scenario, his beastly strength is exactly what the team needs once again.

There’s one other gymnast whom I was a bit disappointed to see left off, and I know I speak for many fans who feel the same way – Jonathan Horton. The two-time Olympian, Olympic high bar medalist, and former world all-around bronze medalist is now the oldest gymnast in the field, yet after not really being a major player since the Olympics in London, I think he shocked a lot of people when he placed 4^th overall on Day 1. Knowing he is very strong on rings and could also contribute big scores on p-bars and high bar, I truly thought he was going to be right in the mix to make this team. When he nailed one of the best p-bar routines I’ve seen him do in years in the first rotation, I had high hopes that he was going to pull it off. Falling on his Cassina on high bar in the second rotation is probably what hurt him the most, as that would need to be one of the events where he’d be used at the world championships. Floor was very strong at 15.15, and although he struggled on pommel horse, he would never be used on this event at the world championships so I don’t think that really affected his chances too much. His 15.2 on rings seemed like it would keep him in contention, but I guess when it came down to it the committee decided they would get more points out of Brandon Wynn than Horton, especially since Leyva can help fill those voids on p-bars and high bar already. I would have expected to see Horton listed as the second alternate though, and am a bit surprised to see they chose Marvin Kimble over him. Kimble did score slightly higher on rings than Horton (15.25 and 15.4), but Horton’s two-day totals on p-bars and high bar were higher. And I would have thought Horton’s track record would have helped give him the edge to grab one of those alternate spots.

Here’s a possible world team finals lineup for this team:

Floor

Ruggeri

Whittenburg

Mikulak

Pommel Horse

Whittenburg

Mikulak

Naddour

Rings

Mikulak

Whittenburg

Wynn

Vault

Ruggeri

Mikulak

Whittenburg

P-Bars

Whittenburg

Mikulak

Leyva

High Bar

Ruggeri

Mikulak

Leyva

It’s a strong team! I definitely think this team can medal in Glasgow. Selecting the team well over two months before the world championships can be a big advantage because it gives these guys the opportunity to truly become a team, train together, and develop the most strategic lineup. A huge congrats to all these guys – I’m excited to see what this team can do on the world stage.

Just got back from the women’s finals and wanted to post some immediate thoughts…

First I’d say that overall this was a much better meet than Day 1.  Although I wasn’t in the arena the first day, the sense I got was there was more positive energy in today’s finals and fewer overall falls.  The top gymnasts in particular looked more solid and confident.  Simone Biles’ performance and her unheard of 63.0 all-around score clearly speaks for itself, and I will say it was an honor to witness that display of gymnastics in person.  From start to finish she appeared more confident than Day 1 and looked like she was having more fun.  The highlights from Simone for me included her stuck full twisting double back off beam that capped off her first routine of the night, her effortless double layout full out on floor which literally floated through the air, and of course her two consecutive stuck vaults – two of the best she has ever done.  Her Amanar was given a 9.9 execution score – when was the last time we saw that?

Maggie Nichols continued her streak, and I’d say even more certainly that she earned a spot on the world team for Glasgow.  Her only real error came on her double-double on floor which she overcooked slightly and took an out of bounds deduction, but otherwise her meet was every bit as good as Day 1.  Standing up a great Amanar on vault for the third meet in a row solidies her reliability to be used on this event, and she once again showed very clean and solid routines on bars and beam (albeit without the full-in beam dismount this time, but still with the newly added barani).  Finishing second place at the U.S. Championships is the highlight of this gymnast’s career to this point, and defeating two Olympic champions in the process has to do wonders for this gymnast’s confidence heading into the Olympic year.

Aly Raisman was fantastic tonight.  I could see a spark in her during her first warm-up before her floor routine – she looked crisp, energetic, and extra bouncy.  The double pike to split jump half actually looked really cool in the warm-up when she did it with good amplitude, though unfortunately in the meet the timing was slightly off.  I’ll be interested to see if she keeps that in there – it can look really good when done well, and really awkward if the punch doesn’t go just right.  I would imagine that is incredibly difficult to do at the end of the routine.  Personally I would love to see her twist the double layout in the third pass, and the cool thing is if she did that, she could then dismount with a double layout.  Her double layout looks so easy for her that I bet she could do it.  Imagine the difficulty that routine would have – I bet she could give Simone a serious run for her money on floor if she had those two passes in there.  Her vault landing was a little scary with the locked legs, but luckily she looked totally fine and hopefully learned not to let that happen again.  Bars was pretty par for the course for her – solid routine with some improved handstands but just a little rough in the beginning.  I wonder if it would be smarter for her to put the toe-on full turn later in the routine, like before the overshoot, rather than at the beginning.  It might allow her to connect that Shaposhnikova into the Tcatchev more smoothly.  It was awesome to see her finish the competition with a very strong beam routine.  Although she skipped some of the connections, it was clean, solid, and exactly what she needed to allow her to leave Indianapolis on a positive note.

I did enjoy watching Gabby Douglas.  Her bar routine in the first rotation was dead on up until the slightly short dismount.  She’s never really done that double layout very well, and I wish they’d either change the technique on it or try something else.  It always seems to be a step down from the rest of her world class routine.  Her beam was obviously off (missed pretty much all her connections), but it wasn’t a disaster and she was able to put that behind her and really turn it on for floor.  I could sense her determination to nail that routine tonight as she stepped on the floor.  Her presentation was much better than Day 1, her turns were WAY more controlled (I loved how well she controlled that double L turn at the beginning), and her tumbling was right on.  The crowd got into her routine and overall you could feel the positive energy in the arena building off her routine.  At that moment I got the feeling that Gabby’s night had officially become a good one.  I think she’ll leave Indianapolis feeling very good about what she did, but also motivated to improve on her mistakes before the world championships.

I’d say those four are still essentially locks for the world team, and the last two spots are still a bit up in the air.  At this point, I’d say Madison Kocian has the upperhand for one of those spots after winning bars two days in a row here in Indianapolis.  She hit at the U.S. Classic as well, not to mention at last year’s world championships.  She’s shown she can do that routine very cleanly and consistently, and it has a high start value and excellent international look.  If we go by numbers and competitive performance, I think she’s earned it.  I don’t see her being used in the world team finals on any other events, but that event alone should give the team at least five tenths.  Ashton Locklear’s routine was fabulous, but since she’s changed some of her in-bar elements to toe-on elements, the start value is lower and was again outscored slightly by Kocian.  If she adds back in the in-bar skills it might be different, but as for what we have seen in the competition, it would make more sense to me to give it to Kocian.

So what about the 6th spot?  I think it’s a tough call still.  Bailie Key had a great meet and almost broke a 60.0 in the all-around (she scored 59.75) – including a very strong 15.2 on bars.  She could be put up on any event if needed – but would she be used in the world team finals on any event?  I do think the team is going to want to have another 15 on beam in their lineup, especially with Gabby Douglas faltering on beam today.  In that case, Alyssa Baumann was the only gymnast in the meet to put up 15+ scores on beam both days (15.15 and 15.05).  She’s absolutely beautiful to watch and has world championship experience on this event.  Should she make the team for this beam performance alone, even though she had some short landings on floor both days and probably wouldn’t be used on vault or bars in a world team finals?  I do think it’s possible, because a beam routine as good s hers is so valuable to have.  And what about Kyla Ross?  My heart sank for her when she fell again on her bars dismount.  It felt like her chances might be over, because after all, that was three falls in a row on her best event.  She just isn’t rotating her flipping elements fast enough right now and is coming up with a lot of short landings.  But then she went to beam and put up a 15.25, looking similar to the Kyla Ross we all remember.  Could she make the team just for beam, like I suggested for Baumann?  I also think this is possible.

Rachel Gowey hit both bars and beam, but put up 14’s on both and thus didn’t quite stand out as much as she is capable of (bars she missed a couple possible connections, and her beam appeared a bit underscored to be honest).  She’s still a contender, but will have more to prove at the selection camp before taking a spot from one of the gymnasts above.  Brenna Dowell had a very unfortunate miss on bars – getting a bit off on the low bar a couple times, then clipping her foot before her dismount and touching her hands.  Although Brenna had a pretty good meet otherwise and has a phenomenal bar routine, I really feel she needed to hit tonight to stay in the world team mix.  And MyKayla Skinner hit all four events tonight and showed a better floor routine (14.8) along with two hit vaults, but I’m just not sure that a floor and vault specialist is what the team needs the most right now.  She’s still a contender, but I feel like the gymnasts with potential to compete on bars and beam may have an edge over her.

So I’d say the world team prospects at this point look like:

1.  Simone Biles
2.  Gabby Douglas
3.  Aly Raisman
4.  Maggie Nichols
5.  Madison Kocian or possibly Ashton Locklear
6.  Bailie Key, Kyla Ross, or Alyssa Baumann

I’ll be there for the men’s meet finals tomorrow afternoon and will post my thoughts on that sometime tomorrow night!

Six male and female gymnasts will be selected for the upcoming world championships to be held in Glasgow, Scotland Oct 23- Nov 2, 2015.  Tonight represents the final opportunity for the women’s contenders to prove themselves in major competition before the team is selected.  At this point in time, it looks like we have four front runners who are all but shoo-ins for the team, and in my opinion, eight legitimate contenders for the last two spots.  Here’s a look at the 12 gymnasts who seem to be in the mix:

The Front Runners
Barring injury, two-time world all-around champion Simone Biles will lead this American team at the upcoming world championships, where she’ll be favored to win her third consecutive world all-around crown, and the U.S. will be favored to win its third consecutive world team title.  In addition to Biles, I would call 2012 Olympic champions Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman essentially shoo-ins for this world team as well.  Gabby has shown fantastic poise overall at the Secret U.S. Classic and first day of the U.S. Championships, and her high bars scores and consistency she has shown on balance beam will be very valuable to this team.  Aly Raisman currently appears to be the 2nd best tumbler in the world behind Simone Biles, and will likely be one of the three chosen to compete on balance beam and vault in the team finals at the world championships as well.  If these two stay healthy, I’d say their spots are pretty secure.  Finally, I believe Maggie Nichols has at this point all but secured her spot on this team.  She has stood up two fantastic Amanars on vault (one of only three being competed amongst the U.S. seniors right now), and has shown very solid scores two meets in a row on the other three events.  Floor is the most likely other event I could see her being used on in the team finals, but realistically she could be put up on any event and do a great job for this team.  Of course anything can still happen, but I would feel comfortable saying she is on this team at this point.

On The Bubble
If we put the above four gymnasts on the world team, that leaves two spots available.  The four front runners could easily put up strong enough scores on all four events to win the world team title, but with two additional spots available, this team has the luxury of trying to add a few more tenths to the team total, and also provide strong backup options everywhere.  Since Aly Raisman would ideally not be used on bars in the world team final and it’s also Simone Biles’ weakest event, it makes sense to make sure to add a gymnast who can put up a really high bars score consistently.  The good news is the U.S. has quite a few gymnasts who could fill this role; the bad news is it’s going to be hard to pick just one.  Kyla Ross has been a world medalist on bars and competed in the Olympic team final in London on this event.  But she’s fallen here in the last two competitions and no longer does some of the in-bar elements that gave her a lot of difficult points in the past (though she has added a unique and difficult full twisting Pak salto).  Madison Kocian and Ashton Locklear have been scoring extremely well on this event and have both shown remarkable consistency here in the last couple of years – and both proved themselves at the 2014 world championships with very strong bars scores as well (Locklear nearly medaled in the event finals).  Brenna Dowell has an exciting, high flying routine and actually posted the highest difficulty score (6.7) on Day 1 here in Indianapolis, with a strong hit set.  Her issue has been consistency, so she will need to repeat this performance on Day 2 and continue to show she can hit this routine reliably in the world selection camp to realistically be put on this team.  Rachel Gowey put up the second highest difficulty score and third highest overall bars score on Day 1, so she is certainly capable of contributing on this event as well.  And Bailie Key, one of the most well-rounded all-around gymnasts in the meet, scored a strong 15.2 on bars here in Indianapolis and has shown great consistency on this event in the last couple of years.

It’s always important to have strong backup on balance beam in a world team situation, and of the above named gymnasts on the bubble, Kyla Ross, Rachel Gowey, and Bailie Key would be most usable on this event if the need arose.  Gowey and Key are also strong on floor, and Gowey can do an Amanar on vault as well (though she is only competing bars and beam this week in Indianapolis).  Having multiple strong events like this can certainly give these three gymnasts an edge over the other “bubble” gymnasts.  Another name to watch for is Alyssa Baumann, who has one of the sharpest and best looking beam routines in the entire world and competed very well on this event in the 2014 world championship team final. She’s also strong on all four events and could be at least a good backup option on bars and floor.  And finally, MyKayla Skinner is a powerhouse gymnast with some of the hardest tumbling in the world; she nearly medaled on floor at the 2014 worlds and earned world bronze.  What’s hurting her right now, in my opinion, is that her current music and choreography don’t match up with her tumbling and might not be received well on the world stage.  She hit her routine pretty well on Day 1 at these championships but only scored a 14.35, due to a low 8.15 in execution.  She’ll need much more than that to be put up in the world team finals.  Having Aly Raisman back in top form doesn’t help MyKayla Skinner’s chances, considering Aly’s more well rounded floor routine and her Amanar on vault.  But Skinner did hit four events here in Indianapolis and certainly has the skills to be in the mix.

In summary, I would rank the top 12 contenders for the world team currently like this:

Front Runners
1.  Simone Biles
2.  Gabby Douglas
3.  Aly Raisman
4.  Maggie Nichols

On The Bubble:
5.  Kyla Ross (UB, BB)
6.  Madison Kocian (UB)
7.  Ashton Locklear (UB)
8.  Rachel Gowey (UB, BB, possibly FX and V)
9.  Bailie Key (UB, BB, possibly FX)
10. Alyssa Baumann (UB, BB, possibly FX)
11. MyKayla Skinner (FX, V)
12. Brenna Dowell (UB)

This ranking could certainly change based on what happens tonight.  For tonight’s finals, I would pay special attention to which gymnast in this last group puts up the highest bars score – that will give her a huge advantage to making this team.  And I would also pay special attention to a gymnast I would call the dark horse in this race – the one whom I could see surprising a lot of people by being named to this team – and that is Rachel Gowey.

Let’s see what happens tonight!  I’ll reassess the contenders after we get some more numbers next to their names.

1. Maggie Nichols Dazzles. We knew she was right in the mix after her extremely impressive performance at the recent Secret U.S. Classic, but would anyone have ever predicted this gymnast would be leading the two-time world all-around champion and THREE Olympic champions in the all-around after 3 events at the U.S. National Championships? I seriously doubt it. On a night when just about everyone was faltering, Maggie continued to showcase her trademark confidence and consistency – with some stunning new skills as well. She is leaner and more elegant than she was a couple years ago, yet is stronger and more powerful at the same time. She’s developed an exquisite combination of qualities and has become a magnificent athlete to watch. Witnessing a gymnast of her height pull off skills like a double-double on floor and a full-in off beam is breathtaking, and she has the poise and artistry now to complete the full package. I’d call her basically a shoo-in for the world team at this point, and the sky’s the limit for how far this gymnast will go in the coming year. I’m excited to watch her again tonight and see where she ends up in this all-around race.

2. Simone Biles Stumbles. Perhaps we’re being a bit harsh on the two-time world all-around champion, but after hardly making a single major error in two years of competition, that’s the standard she’s set for us. A few nervous wobbles on beam in the second rotation sent a signal that Simone was feeling some pressure, and then she shocked us all by falling forward on her full-in dismount on floor – the event where she soars head and shoulders above everyone in the world. Her phenomenal Amanar in the final rotation (incredible 9.85 execution score) still catapulted her back into her usual first-place ranking after Day 1, but Biles clearly showed some vulnerability that we aren’t accustomed to seeing. Perhaps not holding the all-around lead during the first three rotations threw her game slightly off, or perhaps the comebacks of Olympic champions Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman have gotten the current champ slightly intimidated. She’s still the world’s best, but it may be she senses a few new challengers on her heels.

3. Aly Slips Off Beam. If there was one surprise that set the tone for a tense evening on Day 1, it was 2012 Olympic Champion Aly Raisman’s fall from beam in the first rotation. It’s an event where she’s known for stability – in fact she won the bronze medal on this event at the Olympic Games in London. She was just a tad bit off on her back layout – so slightly that it was hardly detectable – but when she went into the leap immediately following it, her balance shifted further and pulled her off the beam. In typical Aly Raisman fashion she roared back to hit the next three events – including one of her best floor routines ever and the top score of the night on that event. What Aly showed was tenacity – the ability to put a very early mistake completely behind her and show her fullest capabilities after that. Any talented gymnast can look great when things are going well; it takes a true champion to look great amidst disappointment. If she hits all four events on Day 2, she could easily still be right in the mix for the 2nd spot in the all-around.

4. Gabby Falters in Final Event. Reigning Olympic all-around champion Gabby Douglas gave an incredible recent showing at the Le Reve water show where she placed 2nd behind Simone Biles and officially stamped her comeback a huge success. She was solid again on the first three events here in Indianopolis, albeit with a bit of a stoic demeanor. Perhaps she’s still building her competition endurance, or perhaps she got a bit caught up in the tense atmosphere in a mistake-filled competition, but I was surprised to see the Olympic champion finish the night with a botched floor routine that lacked the spark and charisma we expect from her. Nearly falling on her full-in – a skill she typically nails easily – and totally aborting two of her much needed double turns cost her at least a full point in deductions and a chance to challenge for the lead. Her music has the potential to be engaging and is much better, in my opinion, than what she used at the Jesolo meet in Italy this year, but the choreography and presentation were weak. I think Gabby could benefit from a few more smiles out there and more aggressive showmanship in this floor routine. She’s still on track to make the world championship team and also reach all-around greatness again, but she’s capable of better than this. Hopefully we’ll see her step it up a notch on Day 2.

5. Kyla Ross Questionable? An Olympic team champion and world all-around medalist, Kyla Ross has been a mainstay on the U.S. team for the last three years, and one of the top all-around gymnasts in the world. However, falling on bars – her best event – at both the U.S. Classic and on Day 1 here in Indianapolis, has to have her and her coaches concerned. With two Olympic champions back in the mix, and several bars specialists all nailing routines on Day 1 (Brenna Dowell, Madison Kocian, and Ashton Locklear), Kyla’s spot on this world championship team is starting to appear in jeopardy. Beam is the other place where Kyla can certainly contribute – she was one of the 3 gymnasts chosen for the Olympic team final in London – but she’s had some uncharacteristic major wobbles on this event in these last two competitions as well. She’s still a great all-around gymnast, but her floor isn’t going to land her a spot on the world or Olympic team, and even the cleanest DTY in the world on vault isn’t going to do much for her chances either. Kyla’s mission is clear – she needs to nail near-perfect routines on bars and beam on Day 2 and needs to show her trademark confidence and consistency that landed her a spot on the 2012 Olympic Team. She should also seriously consider upgrading her vault back to an Amanar, a skill she is capable of performing and did compete briefly three years ago.  Kyla has the edge of competitive experience and proven poise under pressure – including at the Olympic Games.  Let’s look for her to prove this again in tonight’s finals.

I’ll be at the women’s finals this evening, so be on the lookout for a post after the competition!

Perhaps the loudest statement made at this week’s European Championships in Montpellier, France was made by the Russian women.  This is by far the strongest this team has looked in quite some time….certainly since the 2012 Olympics, and I may go so far as to say since 2010 when this team won the world title.  Not to take anything away from Switzerland’s Giulia Steingruber, who undoubtedly delivered the competition of her career by winning the all-around gold and individual medals on floor and vault, but this Russian Resurgence is big news.

Had it not been for Maria Kharenkova’s uncharacteristic fall in the beam finals – after leading the qualifications – Russia would have swept the event finals.  Seeing Ksenia Afanasyeva and Maria Paseka BOTH stand up Amanars in the vault finals yesterday was a pleasant surprise, and Dara Spiridonova has quietly become one of the best and most consistent bar workers of the modern era.  But it was Afanasyeva’s brilliant floor performance today that capped off a wonderful European Championships and one of the most impressive women’s floor finals I can recall.  Her gorgeous tumbling, trademark elegant presentation, and perfectly stuck double pike in the last pass all solidified her statement that she is not only back and primed for her third Olympic Games next summer, but that Russia is putting together its strongest team in years.

The four Russians who competed this week in Montpellier – Ksenia Afanasyeva, Maria Kharenkova, Dara Spiridonova, and Maria Paseka – are obviously prime candidates for this year’s world championship team.  Add in former world and Olympic champion Aliya Mustafina and this already strong team rises to another level.  The 6^th spot could go to 2012 Olympic all-around silver medalist Viktoria Komova if she’s ready – otherwise 2014 world team member Alla Sosnitska would seem a likely contender given her strong potential on floor and vault, events where this team can always use a couple of big scores.

Could a six-member team from Russia challenge the United States this year?  It’s probably still too early to tell, but it’s pretty obvious they’re the only team with a reasonable shot at it.  Romania is still too weak on bars to envision this happening (and the comebacks of Olympic champions Catalina Ponor and Sandra Izbasa unfortunately won’t change this), and China doesn’t have the power on floor or vault right now to pose any kind of serious threat.  Russia is the only other team besides the U.S. that is putting together four balanced events as a team.  I could see them putting up a team finals lineup that would look like this:

Vault

Paseka

Afanasyeva

Komova or Sosnitskaya

Bars 

Mustafina

Spiridonova

Komova or Kharenkova

Beam

Mustafina

Kharenkova

Komova or Afanasyeva

Floor

Afanasyeva

Mustafina

Komova, Kharenkova, or Sosnitskaya

That’s a strong team!  I’d say the U.S. would still be the clear front runner (particularly having Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman both back in the mix), but this Russian team could make it an intriguing competition – rather than the blowout it would be otherwise.

Here’s a look at a routine from each of the four Russians from this week’s European Championships in Montpellier (Afanasyeva’s event finals routine not yet available so her qualifying routine is shown):

That “Cheng” on her first vault certainly isn’t pretty, but it’s a huge start value and extremely valuable for Russia. Her Amanar has improved and this one looked quite easy for her.

She’s become an absolute master of the inbar and pirouetting combinations, and she hits this routine every time. Love the Pak salto to immediate Shaposhnikova-half turn – hers is probably the best I’ve seen.

It was a shame to see her fall in event finals but she hit in both qualifications and the all-around. She still has a little polishing to do, but I expect this will be a routine Russia uses at worlds this year – they don’t have many other consistent routines on this event right now.

Awesome! This routine is better choreographically than her last two…although I don’t think she has quite matched her 2012 masterpiece yet. I expect she will unveil yet another new routine next year in preparation for Rio. She’s an incredible gymnast who has only gotten better with age…not since Svetlana Khorkina have we seen a Russian with this type of longevity. She definitely deserved this win – I think the judges got the medalists correct here.

I’ve decided we’re going to have to blindfold Simone Biles at her next competition to give the other gymnasts at least a fighting chance.

I can’t recall another gymnast who has remained this dominant over the rest of the world in the all-around for two years straight.  Even a longtime champion like Svetlana Khorkina had her ups and downs, and always seemed to have a close challenger en route to her three world all-around titles (1997, 2001, 2003).

Simone’s jaw-dropping 62.299 all-around tally at today’s American Cup in Arlington, Texas keeps her right at the top of the list of contenders for this year’s world all-around title and next year’s coveted Olympic all-around crown.  Her performance today included upgraded routines on bars and floor, and aside from a couple wobbles on beam, was nearly flawless.  In the first rotation she delivered a vault that rivaled 2012 Olympian McKayla Maroney’ perfectly landed “Amanar” in the team final in London.  Like the rest of us, I’m sure McKayla was impressed.

Simone has become so dominant that, rather than asking if anyone can challenge Simone Biles, a more realistic questions is, “Can anyone come within one fall of Simone Biles?”  In other words, is there any gymnast in the world right now who could possibly steal the world all-around title if Simone Biles fell just once?  Even that is certainly debatable at this point.

Larissa Iordache of Romania actually did score within five tenths of Simone at the last world championships.  Larissa seemed to regain her top form in the last year, and improved her bars quite a bit.  She’s one of only a very few gymnasts I could even envision making Simone Biles look over her shoulder at least once during a major competition.  But Simone has increased her difficulty since those world championships – adding back a piked Tcatchev on bars (and training a Mustafina dismount), and now throwing the most effortless double layout full-out ever done by a woman on floor.

Aliya Mustafina of Russia is another possible challenger, but it’s been a long time since we’ve seen her show her full potential on all four events in one competition.  She’s quite a bit better than Simone on bars and can occasionally put together an amazing beam routine, but she’s still just doing a yurchenko double full on vault, and let’s face it – her tumbling on floor will never be on the same level as Simone Biles (neither is anyone else’s).

Mustafina’s Olympic teammate from 2012, Viktoria Komova, is probably capable of giving Simone a run for her money, but we haven’t seen a strong all-around performance from her since her silver medal in London.  She’s battled injury and a growth spurt, and although we’ve seen glimpses of the old Komova on bars and beam, she’s got a long ways to go before we can truly put her back in the all-around mix.

There’s only one other gymnast I can really imagine capable of challenging Simone, and that’s 2012 Olympic all-around champion Gabby Douglas.  I know that may sound a bit far-fetched since Olympic comebacks by American gymnasts haven’t had a great track record in recent years, but she looked amazing in her recent training videos and is still relatively young (she’ll be 20 by next year’s Olympics – not over the hill by today’s standards).  She’s leaps and bounds better than Simone on bars, and is capable of quite a bit of difficulty on all the other events – including an Amanar on vault.  We’ll need to see her in competition and especially on floor and vault before we can put her in this category, but she’s about the only other gymnast I know of who’s capable of it.

Here were some other thoughts I had about today’s competition, on both the men’s and women’s sides….

I still get frustrated seeing unnecessarily low E-scores.  Sam Mikulak sat down one pass on floor but the rest of the routine was phenomenal – he stuck every other landing besides one slightly low side pass, showed great presentation and perfect twisting form.  Why destroy him with a 7.7 E-score?  I could see taking a deduction on the wide-arm press handstand for a slightly short hold, but there is NO WAY there were 1.3 in additional deductions.

And I thought Donnell Whittenburg’s floor could have been a little higher.  You can detect some slight form breaks in some of his tumbling, but there were only a couple small hops in that routine with some incredible tumbling passes.  Taking 1.4 in deductions just seems excessive in my opinion.

Simone Biles’ vault today will surely go down with McKayla Maroney’s epic vault from London as one of the greatest vaults ever done.  I had to watch it at least five times to determine if there was any movement on the landing at all.  When I saw her 9.733 E-score, on one hand I felt glad to see the judges are still willing to throw out E-scores in the high-9’s.  On the other hand, I thought a 9.95 would have felt more satisfying.  Ironically her score exactly matched McKayla Maroney’s score from the team final in London.

I love seeing how Sam Mikulak bounces back from mistakes.  As the defending champion of this meet, he fell on his first two events.  But rather than pouting about it and giving up, he moved past it as if nothing happened and did the next four events about as well as he could do.  Not many gymnasts are able to regain the level of positive energy needed to accomplish that, but I’ve watched him do that time and time again.  That’s part of what makes him such an awesome competitor – and an Olympian.  His high bar was stunning – perfect distance from the bar on those spectacular Kolmanns.  If we added back those two falls he would have been right up there challenging for first place.

Donnell Whittenburg sure was the right pick for this meet.  I would have loved to see him win, but he really does need to improve on high bar if he wants to win major all-around competitions – it is noticeably weaker than his other events.  His pommel horse was obviously a bit muscled today, but his floor, rings, vault, and parallel bars are incredible.  He’s an exciting star and I expect will contend for this year’s world championships (possibly even the all-around podium), and is a definite front runner for next year’s Olympic team.

Just like Whittenburg, Oleg Verniaiev’s Dragulescu on vault is ridiculous!  Have we ever seen a gymnast kick out of it quite like that?  He is an amazing gymnast and always seems to be right up there in the all-around.  I thought they were going to hit him a little harder on rings because of his crosses (slightly high and not quite held solidly).

It’s so cool to see some new p-bar dismounts besides a double pike….we saw a double front, two double front-halves, and one of my favorite skills of the day – a full twisting double back off the end from Jossimar Calvo (Columbia).  What a cool routine that was!  I don’t know how you keep such a good grip for that much underbar work, and especially all the way to the end of the routine.

Is it just me or has women’s bars just gotten too hard for most of the gymnasts?  It seems like you’re either a bars specialist or you’re weak on this event.  I wish there was more room in between.  There’s no reason we should be seeing so many falls and weak performances on this event at a meet like the American Cup.  Sometimes I wish the difficulty wasn’t so demanding and we could see cleaner, more aesthetically pleasing routines, rather than watching so many struggle through their routines on this event.

J-Lo (Jessica Lopez) wasn’t one of those though.  She’s put together some of the best bar routines in the world for the last several years and has typically been underappreciated by the judges.  It was great to see her finally get a pretty strong score on this event, although I was surprised to see that she scored less than one tenth higher in E-score than Mykayla Skinner.  Skinner reminds me of Aly Raisman on this event – weak in her form and technique, but often given pretty forgiving scores.

In general at least a couple of the women’s competitors looked too tired.  I wonder if some of the gymnasts are not arriving at this competition early enough to allow for travel recovery and rest.  Poor Claudia Fragapane was expected to be one of the highlights of this competition, but she looked sluggish and slightly under-prepared.  I was shocked to see her go for a double layout on her last tumbling pass after landing short on the first three – not a good idea this time but looks like this will be an amazing routine.  The choreography is equally as engaging as her routine from last year.  I’m sure she’ll be back much stronger later in the year.  Vanessa Ferrari was more sluggish than normal as well.

I love the American Cup, but I remember years ago when it used to be a two-day event, with the preliminaries held on either Thursday or Friday, and the top 8 qualifiying to the final.  I think this made for a much better meet and I would love to see them go back to this format.  It allowed more gymnasts to compete and actually fight for their spot in the finals.  Several Americans also competed in the preliminaries, and it was exciting to see which two would make the finals.  In general, many gymnasts often do better on Day 2 of a two-day meet – they get some of the kinks and jitters out on the first day and seem to settle down more in the finals.

It will be very interesting to which Americans will compete in the American Cup next year – it’s certainly a very prestigious invite during the Olympic year.  It would seem ideal to have 2012 Olympians Gabby Douglas and Aly Raisman compete to help them fully prove themselves during their respective comebacks, but would it be fair to leave out Simone Biles?  The U.S. also has some other up-and-coming contenders for Rio like Bailie Key, who is age-eligible for next year’s Olympics, and is someone who would benefit tremendously from a competition like the American Cup.  I wonder if Martha will do what she did in 2012 – allow an extra American to compete as “exhibition” but not count in the official scores?  This certainly proved a a nice strategy when she did this for Gabby Douglas, who went on to win the Olympics that year.

For the men, I’m sure Mikulak and Whittenburg will remain major players, as will other past world and Olympic team members John Orozco, Danell Leyva, and Jake Dalton.

We’ll see more from all of these gymnasts later this year as the road to Rio continues.